The near term outlook ...
As many you may know, it is now legal for auctions to be conducted in New
York State. Unfortunately, the law was created as such that only a handful
of stores (two specifically) were able to cash in on the deal and everybody
else is watching. Christie's and Sotherby's have teamed up with
Sherry's and Zachy's and they are riding the gravy train.
As a result, we have seen a huge inflation of prices for the best Bordeaux
and where it was once a place to search out for good deals, has tuned out
to be an overpay situation with many wines actually selling for less at the
retail level. Such a huge disparity has confused the consumer and the market
alike. Our hope is that things will come down to earth again in the the near
future.
The truth is that wealthy markets (Asia, Europe) are paying a lot more than
the Americans are willing to pay, and that's where all the goodies are going.
Futures ...
The 1996 campaign has been the most bizarre we've ever experienced. Bordeaux's
greediness is at an all time high and most chateaux did not release prices
until late May. The buying frenzy from other countries has been simply out of
control and prices are so high that we've decided to take a very conservative
position on the vintage. The reason is that the Bordeaux market has reached a
frightening level and we do not feel like taking huge positions on over-priced
wines. We simply do not feel that consumers are willing to pay over $3,000 for
a first growth Bordeaux, two years in advance. There are too many other great
wines out there that you can buy for much less.
And 1996 is not even that great of a vintage overall. Can you imagine if 1997
is going to be another 1982? Will everybody get stuck with the overpriced
1996's (1989 deja vu?), or will the 1997 first growths be $6,000 a case on
futures?
Yours truly,
Max Marinucci
President - The Wine Connection
max@wineconn.com
